Market insights
Recent rate movements
The gilts curve flattened in every period measured, as the 2Y-30Y spread narrowed each time. Spread Change = (Change in 30Y) - (Change in 2Y).
- Past day: Spread Change = (+2.42) - (+5.80) = -3.37 bps, a FLATTENING move. Both yields rose, but the 2Y rose more than the 30Y.
- Past month: Spread Change = (-31.62) - (+2.92) = -34.53 bps, a FLATTENING move. The 30Y fell 31.62 bps while the 2Y rose 2.92 bps, so the long end drove the narrowing.
- Past year: Spread Change = (+50.60) - (+116.18) = -65.58 bps, a FLATTENING move. The 2Y rose 116.18 bps and the 30Y rose 50.60 bps, so the short end increased by more than twice as much as the long end.
Because each verified period shows flattening, the data indicates that short-maturity yields have risen relative to long-maturity yields. Over the past year, the larger rise at the short end is consistent with higher near-term rate expectations being priced in, while the smaller rise at the long end suggests longer-horizon expectations moved less. Over the past month, the fall in long-dated yields outpaced the modest rise at the short end, which is consistent with a decline in longer-term yield expectations. The data alone does not identify the underlying drivers, such as inflation expectations or growth conditions, so these links should be treated as descriptive rather than conclusive.
Spread to the fitted curve
The 1 5/8% Treasury Gilt 2071 (TG71), which matures on 22 October 2071, is trading at a spread of 4.37 bps to its interpolated curve yield on 11 November 2026. This is above the upper threshold of 3.98 bps, so the reading is flagged as a high anomaly against the past 12 months.
Over the past day, the spread widened from 2.81 bps to 4.37 bps, a rise of about 1.6 bps. Over the past month, it rose from roughly 0.78 bps to 4.37 bps, an increase of about 3.6 bps. Over the past year, it moved from about 2.06 bps to 4.37 bps. The series has been volatile in recent weeks, with several large single-day swings, including readings of 2.89 bps on 2 November and 0.75 bps on 3 November, before the latest move higher.
The positive spread means TG71's yield is higher than the yield implied by the surrounding points on the curve, so the bond is trading cheap relative to the curve. Because the current level is at the extreme of its 12-month range, it stands out as a relative-value anomaly. The data itself does not identify the cause of the move, so further market information would be needed to explain it.
The 4¼% Treasury Gilt 2039 (T39), maturing 7 September 2039, is trading at an unusually high spread to the interpolated gilts yield curve. On 11 November 2026 the spread stood at 3.01 bps, a z-score of about 3.01 that exceeds the upper anomaly threshold of 2.74 bps. Over the past 12 months, the spread has generally ranged between roughly -1.7 and +1.9 bps, so the current reading is outside its recent historical band.
The spread has widened sharply in recent sessions. It moved from about 0.00 bps on 4 November to 3.51 bps on 6 November, the highest value in the twelve-month series, before easing to 0.61 bps on 9 November and then rising again to 2.24 bps on 10 November and 3.01 bps on 11 November. The bond is therefore pricing at a yield meaningfully above the level implied by its neighbouring gilts on the curve, which indicates that it is trading cheap relative to the curve.
For fixed-income investors, this is a relative-value signal rather than a directional one. It shows that T39 has underperformed its curve-implied fair value, not that gilt yields as a whole have moved. Analysts comparing the bond with adjacent maturities should monitor whether the elevated spread persists, as the recent pattern has been volatile.
The 3¼% Treasury Gilt 2044 (TG44) has shown an unusually low spread to the interpolated curve yield. Its latest reading, on 2026-11-11, is 0.99 bps, below the lower anomaly threshold of 1.17 bps, which marks the spread as anomalously low relative to the past 12 months.
Over the past day, the spread rose from -2.17 bps to 0.99 bps, a reversal after a sharp decline from 5.18 bps on 2026-11-06. Over the past month, the spread has compressed from roughly 3.5 bps in mid-October. Over the past year, the series has been highly volatile, ranging from about -2.2 bps to 8.3 bps, so the current level sits at the bottom of that range.
A negative or near-zero spread means TG44 yields less than the curve-implied yield at its maturity, so the bond is trading rich, or expensive, relative to neighbouring gilts. For fixed-income investors, this matters for relative-value comparisons: the bond offers less yield pickup versus the curve than it typically has over the past year, which affects its attractiveness against adjacent maturities.
The 0 1/8% Treasury Gilt 2028 (TN28), which matures on 31 January 2028, is trading at a spread of -44.81 bps to the interpolated curve yield as of 11 November 2026. This level sits below the anomaly threshold of -43.24 bps and is the lowest reading in the 12-month lookback window. A negative spread means the bond's yield is below the curve yield implied by neighbouring gilts, so TN28 is priced rich relative to the curve.
Over the past day, the spread moved only marginally, rising by about 0.7 bps from -45.56 bps on 10 November. Over the past month, it has widened by roughly 15 bps from about -29.8 bps in mid-October, and over the past year it has fallen by about 35 bps from around -9.9 bps in November 2025. The decline has been persistent since early September 2026, with several sharp drops along the way, rather than a single one-off move.
The implication is that TN28 has become markedly more expensive than the bonds around it on the short end of the curve. Because its maturity is close, its valuation is largely driven by the short-dated segment of the curve, so this divergence is notable for investors comparing short gilts. The data does not identify the cause of the move, so any explanation would need to be checked against additional market information.
The spread of the 1¼% Treasury Gilt 2027 (TG27, maturing 22 July 2027) to the interpolated curve yield fell to -18.22 bps on 11 November 2026. This reading sits just below the anomaly threshold of -18.20 bps, so it is flagged as unusually low relative to the past 12 months. A negative spread means the bond's yield is below the yield implied by the surrounding points on the curve, so TG27 is trading richer than its neighbours.
Over the past day, the spread rose by about 5.7 bps from -23.92 bps on 10 November, after reaching -27.13 bps on 9 November, its lowest point in the series. Over the past month, the spread moved from roughly zero in mid-October to its current level, a decline of about 18 bps. Over the past year, it has fallen from about +2.1 bps on 11 November 2025, a change of roughly -20 bps. The series was much higher earlier in the period, peaking near +16.9 bps in April 2026.
The move is confined to TG27 in the data provided, and the spread has deteriorated steadily since early October, with the sharpest declines between 22 October and 9 November. The current reading is therefore an extreme point within a sustained downward trend, rather than a single-day outlier. Because the spread is measured against an interpolated curve, the reading reflects TG27's yield relative to adjacent maturities as well as its own price, so the anomaly should be interpreted as a relative-value signal rather than a change in the level of gilt yields.