1) Recent Rates Movements
The UK gilts yield curve has experienced notable movements across different timeframes, with varying directional changes and shape adjustments.
- Past day: The curve flattened significantly with a spread change of -4.21bps (30Y declined 9.27bps vs 2Y down 5.06bps), as longer-dated yields fell more sharply than shorter maturities.
- Past month: The curve steepened with a spread change of +9.02bps (30Y rose 8.86bps vs 2Y virtually unchanged at -0.16bps), driven by rising long-end yields while short rates remained stable.
- Past year: A dramatic steepening occurred with a spread change of +110.88bps (30Y surged 54.36bps vs 2Y falling 56.52bps), representing a substantial shift in curve dynamics.
The contrasting movements reflect evolving market conditions and monetary policy expectations. The past day's flattening suggests potential flight-to-quality dynamics or expectations of monetary easing, as longer-dated bonds outperformed. The past month's steepening indicates rising inflation expectations or growth concerns affecting longer maturities more than short-term rates. Over the past year, the pronounced steepening reflects the transition from aggressive monetary tightening expectations (which pressured short rates) to concerns about longer-term fiscal sustainability and inflation risks. This pattern typically emerges when markets anticipate central bank policy pivots while maintaining concerns about structural economic challenges affecting longer-term government borrowing costs.
2) Trends and Anomalies
Over the past 2 week(s), the volume of T26 on LSE was on a upward trend, with the latest daily volume on 2025-11-25 of 27,308,262. The increasing trading volume for this bond suggests increasing market activity and interest around this particular gilt.