Market insights
Recent rate movements
The gilts yield curve moved in different directions across the periods, measured by the spread between the 30Y and 2Y yields (Spread Change = Change in 30Y − Change in 2Y). The most significant move is the past year flattening.
- Past day: Spread Change = (+8.26) − (−0.65) = +8.9 bps, a STEEPENING move, as the 30Y yield rose by 8.3 bps while the 2Y yield fell by 0.7 bps.
- Past month: Spread Change = (−14.45) − (+1.62) = −16.1 bps, a FLATTENING move, as the 30Y yield fell by 14.5 bps while the 2Y yield rose by 1.6 bps.
- Past year: Spread Change = (+57.64) − (+116.25) = −58.6 bps, a FLATTENING move, as the 2Y yield rose by 116.2 bps against a 57.6 bps rise in the 30Y yield.
Based on these verified move types, the dominant trend is a flattening of the curve over the past month and the past year, with the one-day steepening acting as a short-lived counter-move. Over the past year, the 2Y yield rose by roughly twice as much as the 30Y yield, which is consistent with markets pricing a higher near-term rate path relative to longer-term rates, alongside yields rising across the curve. The past-month flattening, driven by the 30Y yield falling more than the 2Y yield, indicates that longer-dated yields declined relative to short rates, which is consistent with a reduction in long-term rate or inflation expectations. These readings describe market pricing only and do not by themselves indicate the future path of interest rates, inflation or economic growth.
Spread to the fitted curve
The 4% Treasury Gilt 2029 (T29K, maturing 22 May 2029) has a spread of 14.55 bps to the interpolated gilt curve on 13 November 2026. This is unusually high relative to its own history: the reading sits just above the upper anomaly threshold of 14.46 bps and about three standard deviations above the bond's 12-month mean of roughly 9.85 bps (standard deviation of 1.53 bps).
Over the past 12 months, the spread generally ranged between about 7 and 11 bps but showed frequent, short-lived spikes, including 13.51 bps on 15 May 2026, 14.10 bps on 29 July 2026 and 14.64 bps on 1 September 2026. Many of these elevated readings reversed quickly. For example, the spread fell from 14.25 bps on 4 September to 7.89 bps on 7 September. The series is therefore highly volatile, and while the current level is extreme, it is not unprecedented within this window.
Over the past day, the spread widened by about 1.57 bps from 12.98 bps, continuing a climb from roughly 10.4 bps at the end of October. A positive spread means T29K yields more than the yields implied by neighbouring maturities on the curve, so the bond is trading cheap relative to the curve. The data alone do not identify the driver of this move, whether bond-specific, liquidity-related or linked to curve shape. Persistence of the spread over subsequent sessions would be needed before treating it as a sustained relative-value shift.
The 6% Treasury Stock 2028 (TR28, maturing 7 December 2028) traded at a spread of -14.01 bps to its interpolated curve yield on 13 November 2026. This is the lowest reading in the 12-month lookback and falls well below the anomaly lower threshold of -11.94 bps, which sits about 3.0 bps (one standard deviation) from the recent average.
The spread moved by roughly -9 bps over the past day, from -5.03 bps on 12 November. Over the past month, it has fallen by about 7.5 bps from -6.46 bps on 13 October, and over the past year it has declined by about 9 bps from -5.12 bps on 13 November 2025. A negative spread means the bond yields less than the curve interpolated at its maturity, so TR28 is trading rich relative to neighbouring gilts.
The series has been volatile, with several sharp one-day dips, including -9.93 bps on 2 November 2026 and -8.70 bps on 3 September 2026. The current reading is nonetheless a clear outlier, since it is more than 4 bps below the previous low in the lookback. The data identifies the relative mispricing but does not establish its cause, so any explanation would require additional market information.
The TN28 (0 1/8% Treasury Gilt 2028, maturing 31 January 2028) spread to the interpolated curve yield has fallen to -46.83 bps on 13 November 2026. This is below the lower anomaly threshold of -44.60 bps, and it is the lowest reading in the twelve-month lookback window. The spread has sat between roughly -0.1 and -47 bps over that period.
Over the past day, the spread moved from -42.40 bps to -46.83 bps, a decline of about 4.4 bps. Over the past month, it fell from about -25.2 bps to -46.8 bps, a decline of roughly 21.6 bps. Over the past year, it fell from about -10.2 bps to -46.8 bps, a decline of roughly 36.6 bps. The move has been persistent rather than a single-day spike, with the steepest falls concentrated in September and early November 2026.
A negative spread means TN28 yields less than the curve interpolated from its neighbouring gilts. The bond is therefore trading rich relative to the curve, which implies a higher price than its neighbours would imply at the same maturity. Because the spread is measured against the curve, the decline reflects TN28 underperforming its peers in yield terms, not a general shift in gilt yields.
The data does not identify the cause of this move. The anomaly is confined to this single short-dated, low-coupon bond, so holders and analysts should treat it as a relative-value dislocation specific to TN28. Monitoring whether the spread continues to widen or reverts toward its recent range would clarify whether the anomaly persists.