1) Recent Rates Movements
The UK gilts yield curve has shown distinct movements across different time periods, reflecting changing market expectations and economic conditions.
- Past day: The yield curve experienced a slight bull steepening, with the 2Y yield declining by 1.04bps while the 30Y yield fell by 0.91bps. The spread change calculation ((-0.91) - (-1.04) = +0.13bps) indicates a minor steepening, as short-term rates fell more than long-term rates. All tenors showed modest declines, suggesting a general downward shift in yields across the curve.
- Past month: A notable bear flattening occurred, with the 2Y yield rising by 11.23bps while the 30Y yield increased by only 0.88bps. The spread change calculation ((+0.88) - (+11.23) = -10.35bps) confirms a significant flattening move. The most pronounced increases were in the 5Y sector (+13.59bps), with progressively smaller increases toward the long end.
- Past year: The curve underwent a dramatic bear steepening, with the 2Y yield decreasing by 66.37bps while the 30Y yield increased by 62.72bps. The spread change calculation ((+62.72) - (-66.37) = +129.09bps) represents a substantial steepening of the curve, with a rotation around the 5Y point.
These yield curve movements reflect evolving economic conditions and monetary policy expectations.
- The past day's modest bull steepening suggests a slight improvement in near-term economic sentiment, potentially driven by expectations of monetary easing.
- The past month's bear flattening indicates markets pricing in higher near-term interest rates, possibly due to persistent inflation concerns, while longer-term growth and inflation expectations remain relatively anchored.
- The past year's significant bear steepening reflects a major shift in the interest rate environment, with markets adjusting to lower short-term rates (likely due to monetary policy easing expectations) while simultaneously pricing in higher long-term inflation or term premiums. This dramatic curve transformation suggests a fundamental reassessment of the UK's long-term economic outlook.
2) Trends and Anomalies
Over the past 6 month(s), the volume of T25 was unusually high, with the latest daily volume on 2025-06-09 of 25,746,781. This value falls outside the expected range (defined as within 3 standard deviations of the mean) based on historical data. The high trading volume for this bond suggests heightened market activity and interest around this particular gilt.
Over the past 6 month(s), the volume of TG29 was unusually high, with the latest daily volume on 2025-06-09 of 12,122,620. This value falls outside the expected range (defined as within 3 standard deviations of the mean) based on historical data. The high trading volume for this bond suggests heightened market activity and interest around this particular gilt.
Over the past 6 month(s), the volume of TG30 was unusually high, with the latest daily volume on 2025-06-09 of 11,120,962. This value falls outside the expected range (defined as within 3 standard deviations of the mean) based on historical data. The high trading volume for this bond suggests heightened market activity and interest around this particular gilt.
Over the past 6 month(s), the volume of T26A was unusually high, with the latest daily volume on 2025-06-09 of 87,011,365. This value falls outside the expected range (defined as within 3 standard deviations of the mean) based on historical data. The high trading volume for this bond suggests heightened market activity and interest around this particular gilt.
Over the past 6 month(s), the volume of TG26 was unusually high, with the latest daily volume on 2025-06-09 of 10,988,660. This value falls outside the expected range (defined as within 3 standard deviations of the mean) based on historical data. The high trading volume for this bond suggests heightened market activity and interest around this particular gilt.
Over the past 1 month(s), the volume of TG61 was on a downward trend, with the latest daily volume on 2025-06-09 of 1,275,000. The decreasing trading volume for this bond suggests decreasing market activity and interest around this particular gilt.