Market insights

The gilts yield curve has exhibited a consistent flattening trend across all observed periods, with long-end yields falling or rising less than short-end yields.

• Past day: Spread Change = (-3.38) - (-2.74) = -0.64bps, indicating a modest FLATTENING. Over the past day, yields declined across the curve, with the 20Y tenor falling the most (-3.54bps) while the 2Y tenor declined the least (-2.74bps).
• Past month: Spread Change = 7.59 - 18.01 = -10.42bps, confirming a clear FLATTENING. Over the past month, all tenors rose, but the 2Y yield increased by 18.01bps compared to just 7.59bps for the 30Y, compressing the long-short spread.
• Past year: Spread Change = 43.30 - 88.14 = -44.84bps, representing a substantial FLATTENING. Over the past year, short-end yields rose sharply (2Y: +88.14bps) while long-end yields rose more modestly (30Y: +43.30bps), the largest flattening move among the three periods.

This sustained flattening across the past day, past month, and past year reflects a persistent repricing of the front end relative to the long end of the curve. Such a pattern is typically associated with monetary policy tightening, where higher short-term interest rates compress the spread between short and long maturities. The scale of the flattening—most pronounced over the past year and progressively less pronounced in shorter lookback periods—suggests the repricing dynamic has moderated somewhat in recent weeks and days, though the directional trend toward a flatter curve remains intact across all three timeframes.