Market insights

Using the 2Y yield as the short-end reference and the 30Y yield as the long-end reference, the gilts curve has flattened in every period analysed. Spread Change is calculated as (Change in 30Y) - (Change in 2Y).

• Past day: Over the past day, Spread Change = (-5.68) - (-2.53) = -3.15 bps, a FLATTENING move. The 30Y yield fell more than the 2Y yield, narrowing the spread.
• Past month: Over the past month, Spread Change = (+8.37) - (+11.70) = -3.33 bps, a FLATTENING move. The 2Y yield rose more than the 30Y yield, narrowing the spread.
• Past year: Over the past year, Spread Change = (+53.88) - (+107.57) = -53.69 bps, a FLATTENING move. Short-dated yields rose roughly twice as much as long-dated yields.

Because all three periods show negative spread changes, the data consistently point to flattening rather than steepening. Over the past month and past year, yields rose across the curve, but the increase was concentrated at the short end, which is the pattern that drives the flattening. Over the past day, yields fell across the curve and the long end declined more, which also narrowed the spread. The data show the direction and size of these shifts but do not identify their underlying causes, such as changes in interest rate expectations, inflation expectations or growth outlook.